January 2010 Update
Market Recap
Equity prices finished 2009 on a strong note. All major indexes posted gains during the fourth quarter. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average led the way with a 7.37% increase. Corporate earnings continue to improve through cost reduction
initiatives, and stronger export sales that were fueled by a weaker U.S. dollar.
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) left key short-term lending rates unchanged during the fourth quarter. The Fed remains
focused on economic recovery as unemployment continues to be a problem. Rates will remain at historic lows until
further improvement in the economy begins to materialize.
Unemployment increased to 10.0% at year’s end. Corporations continued to be cautious with workforce expansion due
to uncertainty with economic recovery, tax increases and the unknown costs associated with government-sponsored
healthcare.
By The Numbers
Fourth Quarter 2009:
The S&P 500 Index gained 58 points or 5.5%.
The Russell 2000 Index gained 21 points or 3.5%.
The NASDAQ Composite gained 147 points or 6.9%.
Indexes 12/31/09 12/31/08 QTR %Chg YTD %Chg
S&P 500 1115.10 903.25 5.5 23.5
Russell 2000 625.39 499.45 3.5 25.2
NASDAQ 2269.15 1577.03 6.9 43.9
Mueller Asset Management model portfolios posted the following gains for 2009:
Aggressive Growth portfolio +32.34%
Growth portfolio +24.98%
Income and Growth portfolio +17.25%
Conservative portfolio +11.17%
Income portfolio +4.11%
U.S. Treasury yields bumped up during the fourth quarter. Investors are sensing a pick up in the economy that will
eventually lead to higher rates.
Yield 12/31/09 12/31/08 QTR Chg YTD Chg
1 Yr Treasury 0.47% 0.27% 0.07% 0.20%
5 Yr Treasury 2.69% 1.55% 0.38% 1.14%
10 Yr Treasury 3.85% 2.25% 0.54% 1.60%
The Federal Discount Rate remains at 0.50% vs. 0.50% a year ago.
Conventional FHA 30 year mortgage rate is at an APR 5.28%.
The unemployment rate rose to 10.0% during the fourth quarter of 2009.
2010 Outlook
Corporate profits will continue to improve over the next couple of quarters. Tight control over costs will fuel profit
expansion as corporate revenues improve with the economy. U.S. exports will continue to rise due to the weakness in
the dollar. Inflation should remain somewhat tame due to high unemployment and weak factory utilization levels. The Fed
will keep interest rates at historic lows during the first quarter of 2010. These factors should impact equity investments
favorably over the short term.
Longer-term, continued economic expansion could prove to be more problematic. The effects of the growing federal
debt, the cost of the pending healthcare legislation, continued high unemployment and pending tax increases may prove
too difficult for the market to overcome. We believe that interest rates will begin to rise by the second half of 2010.
Historically, equity investments react negatively to rising interest rates. For these reasons, we are cautious in our outlook
for U.S. equities in the second half of 2010. All eyes will be focused on the pending mid-term elections and the effect they
may have on fiscal policy.
ETF Focus
PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC)
As we start the New Year, Mueller Asset Management will feature a single Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) in each
quarterly report. This quarter we will highlight DBC as our featured ETF. Over the past decade, commodities have been
trending higher. Copper, the leading industrial metal, saw a ten year gain of 276%, oil approximately 204%, gold about
279% and silver around 220%. A great way to invest in these commodities is through ETFs. DBC is an ETF composed
of futures contracts on 14 of the most heavily traded and imported physical commodities in the world. These
commodities include WTI Crude, Brent Crude, Heating Oil, RBOB Gasoline, Natural Gas, Gold, Silver, Corn, Copper,
Sugar, Wheat and others.
Commodities can provide an important hedge against inflation and market downturns. DBC provides an economical
way for investors to own a broad basket of commodities. Continuation of our current monetary policy could lead to further
weakness in the dollar. Some analysts say that inflation will pose a problem in 2010 with the continuation of low interest
rates, expansion of the money supply and a weaker dollar. Commodity prices usually trend higher during inflationary
periods. Mueller Asset Management advises small positions of commodity ETFs such as DBC in a balanced portfolio.
We encourage investors to continue with a disciplined approach to investing. There will always be challenges facing the
markets and for this, investors need to remain diversified across all asset classes and stay focused on long-term goals
for accumulating wealth.
